The 2020 Women’s World T20 has been an exciting event so far that has lived up to its expectations. However, the major takeaway from the tournament so far is the rise of the teams beyond Australia, New Zealand, and England. It can be observed that, at least in this format, there is very little that separates these teams from the others. In fact, they have not only managed to challenge them but have even gone one step ahead of them and won the game.
Take the opening match, for example. In front of the home crowd of Australia, it would be highly unexpected that India, despite the fight shown in the tri-series, would beat Australia, especially after scoring just 132. However, they showed the skill of their bowling resources to beat Australia quite convincingly in the end. Australia also had a scare with the bat against Sri Lanka, losing a few early wickets, but they managed to win in the end. If that was not enough, some upsets in Group B has thrown the group-wide open, with both semi-final slots still up for grabs. After a horror starts by West Indies against Thailand while batting, they were able to take them down. However, they failed to win their second game against Pakistan, against whom they would have believed that they could win. But before that game, South Africa would spring a surprise by defeating a team like England.
With such upsets, it is interesting to take stock of the team standings to identify who could possibly progress to the knock-out. But first, let’s recap the groups.
• Group A – Australia, India, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh
• Group B – England, South Africa, Pakistan, West Indies, and Thailand
Let us now look at how individual teams are placed and how they could qualify for the semis:
India – With an unbeaten run of 4 matches won out of 4, India is the first team to have qualified for the semi-finals. They win end up topping the group irrespective of the result of the other games are have now emerged as one of the top contenders of the title. However, much of the success is owing to Shafali Verma’s early assault and their dependence on spinners. Their middle-order has been quite fragile and has conceded the advantage that the starts have given them. The middle-order will have to firm up if they would like to win the semis and the final. They await the second-placed team from Group B and will face them in the famous Sydney Cricket Ground.
Australia – The hosts have won 2 games out of 3 and are placed second in their group owing to a superior run rate over New Zealand. They had a poor outing against India but since, have reversed their fortunes by winning against Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. They were in trouble while facing Sri Lanka, losing quick wickets while batting. However, the captain, along with the experienced Rachel Haynes stepped up to get the win. Alyssa Healy was superb against Bangladesh, a game which they won convincingly to boost their net run rate. That will now matter little, as the only way to get to the playoffs is to beat New Zealand in their last game of the round-robin. If their match is abandoned, then Australia will go through on account of a superior net run rate.
New Zealand – New Zealand has had a good game against Sri Lanka. However, Sophie Devine had a failure against India and they ended up losing by a narrow margin of 3 runs, owing to the brilliance of Amelia Kerr. They also had a challenging game against Bangladesh, where they were dismissed for only 91 runs. However, they managed to dismiss Bangladesh for even lesser and keep their semi-final hopes alive. They must now win their virtual quarter-final match against Australia to progress to the semis. Even an abandonment won’t do for them. It looks a stiff ask considering that the match will be played on the same ground where they were dismissed by 91 against Bangladesh. Sophie Devine holds the key to their fortunes.
Sri Lanka & Bangladesh – With all the 3 matches played so far lost, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have been eliminated from the tournament. They have challenged the other teams at times, but their fielding lapses have proved too costly for them. They will now face each other to determine who finishes last in the group.
South Africa – With two wins out of two, including one against England, South Africa are the best-placed team in Group B. They are equal on points compared to England but have the benefit of an additional game over them. A win against Pakistan will confirm their place in the semi-finals. A loss, however, can throw in some interesting probabilities. Should they lose against Pakistan and England lose against West Indies, all four teams will be tied on points and their match against West Indies will end up being a virtual knockout. If they lost against Pakistan but England win against West Indies, then, again their final match will be a decider as Pakistan have an easy game against Thailand next, where they will fancy drawing level on points. Their best chance is to win both their match, but even one win will do if other results are in their favor. They need one more point in their favor, so even an abandoned game might do them some good.
England – England may be on equal points as South Africa and maybe joint table-toppers of the group on points, they have a disadvantage that their match against the West Indies in their last league game. They have to win this match to stay in contention. Should they lose, they must hope that South Africa has already beaten Pakistan and will beat West Indies as they will then restrict West Indies to 4 points. In such a scenario, Pakistan may also end up with 4 points having their last game against Thailand, a game they will expect to win convincingly. England has a much superior net run rate, which will likely get them through to the playoffs should this happen. An abandonment can help them progress to the next stage.
West Indies – West Indies have two big games coming up against England and South Africa. They need to win both their matches to qualify for the semis. Stafanie Taylor has performed quite well for them but their dropped catches have let them down, especially in their last game against Pakistan. If they lose any one game, they will be forced to depend on the fortunes of the other teams. Considering that their net run rate, a loss would make their progression difficult as they will, at best, tie with England or South Africa, and they have a much inferior net run rate compared to either of them.
Pakistan – With only one win in 2 games, Pakistan are currently second from bottom in the group. Their best chance to progress to the semis is to win both their remaining games. They have the benefit of having a game against one of the weaker teams, Thailand, in hand. They should be able to win that match. Should they win against Thailand but lose against South Africa, their probability of progression to the semis will reduce drastically and they have the poorest net run rate out of the 4 teams that can qualify from the group.
Thailand – Thailand has lost all their 3 games so far in their maiden World T20 appearance. They are already eliminated from the tournament. However, if they manage to pull off an upset win against Pakistan, they might take Pakistan down with them.
To predict the outcomes will be a difficult challenge as there are some tough matches to decide team progressions. Australia vs New Zealand is too close to call as is both Pakistan Vs South Africa and England Vs West Indies as they have a very marginal head-to-head record against each other.
However, I strongly believe that Australia would defeat New Zealand considering the White Ferns’ last game against Bangladesh and Australia regaining their batting prowess. South Africa should win at least one out of their two games and progress to the semis. England also has the firepower to defeat the West Indies and progress to the knock-outs.
To conclude, my teams for the semis are India, Australia, South Africa, and England. India would possibly end up facing England as it did in the previous edition while South Africa should be facing host Australia.
It looks like a cracking finish to the league games to set the stage for very interesting semi-finals. Follow us on Twitter for all the updates.