As the 4th edition of the Women’s Premier League (WPL) enters its business end, tension grips the points table with just five league-stage games remaining. Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) Women, the former 2024 champions, led by skipper Smriti Mandhana, have already punched their playoff ticket atop the standings with 10 points from six games (five wins, one loss to Delhi Capitals). One more victory seal the top spot and a direct final berth.
But below them, Delhi Capitals (6 points), Gujarat Giants (6 points), Mumbai Indians (4 points), and UP Warriorz (4 points) battle fiercely for the two remaining knockout spots, all five teams still mathematically alive for the title.
Tonight’s clash at Vadodara’s Kotambi Stadium pits table-toppers RCB against fourth-placed Mumbai Indians, captained by Harmanpreet Kaur. RCB’s solitary defeat came against Jemimah Rodrigues’ Delhi Capitals, while MI nurse four losses from six outings. With every run and wicket now a potential decider, here’s the intricate qualification math for the chasing pack.
Delhi Capitals’ Path: Steady but Slippery
Delhi Capitals Women, sitting second with six points from three wins in six games (NRR: -0.169), hold a strong hand but face Gujarat Giants and UP Warriorz next. Two wins confirm their playoff spot outright, locking in momentum for a top two finish.
One victory, especially against GG, keeps them in control, but they’d need both MI and UPW to drop at least one game, or it boils down to net run rate battles. No wins? They’re alive only if MI and UPW stumble once each, praying their NRR holds up; otherwise, the knockouts slip away.
Gujarat Giants’ Path: Double-Edged Sword
Third-placed Gujarat Giants Women match DC’s six points from three wins in six (NRR: -0.169), with Delhi Capitals and Mumbai Indians as their final hurdles. Sweep both for automatic qualification, no ifs, no buts.
One win over DC demands MI and UPW each lose once, or NRR decides. Beating MI instead? They need UPW to falter at least once, with run rate as the tiebreaker. Zero wins leaves them reliant on MI and UPW losses for an NRR miracle; fail that, and playoffs fade.
Mumbai Indians’ Path: Defending Champs’ Desperate Dash
Defending champions Mumbai Indians Women languish fourth with four points from two wins in six (NRR: +0.46), facing RCB tonight before Gujarat Giants. Their golden path: two wins paired with DC winning both theirs, teeing up an NRR showdown.
One win over RCB requires GG to topple DC for any run-rate hope; otherwise, elimination looms. Victory against GG instead needs DC to beat GG similarly. No wins? MI’s title defense ends here, knocked out cold.
UP Warriorz’ Path: Long Shot from the Bottom
UP Warriorz Women, fifth with four points from two wins in six (NRR: -0.769), tackle RCB and DC in a do-or-die run. Two triumphs demand GG sweeps both games, setting up an NRR scrap they enter as underdogs.
One win against RCB hinges on DC beating GG for run-rate relevance; flipping it with a GG win needs GG over DC. Blank slate? They’re out, title hopes extinguished.
With RCB eyeing the summit and the rest entangled in this web of results and run rates, the WPL 2026 knockouts promise fireworks. Will Mandhana’s machine dominate, or can the chasers upset the script?
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